Jaxson Dart Should Have Been in First-Round Chatter From the Start
How Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart was First Round-Worthy from the Start of the Draft Process.
Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart has officially entered the first-round discussion of the NFL Draft following an impressive showing at the NFL Combine. Despite only completing one 39-yard pass on three attempts and scoring a rushing touchdown, his stock has risen significantly. However, the conversation surrounding Dart as a potential first-round pick should have started long before the Combine.
Elite College Performance
Dart’s final year pre-NFL Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade exceeded 90, matching the grade of 2023 NFL Draft No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young. That alone should have positioned him among the top quarterback prospects. His accuracy was another indicator of his NFL readiness—he completed over 69% of his passes, a benchmark that has historically correlated with NFL roster success. Since 1980, 65% of quarterbacks who completed at least 69% of their passes either were drafted or found a place on an NFL roster as undrafted free agents.
Key Metrics Predict Success
When evaluating quarterbacks, two critical passing statistics have been strong indicators of success in the NFL: touchdown pass percentage and interception percentage. Since 2011, quarterbacks who have had at least one 10-plus-game season with a passer rating of 90 or better while averaging at least one touchdown pass per game and recording more touchdowns than interceptions have generally found success at the pro level.
Dart’s touchdown pass rate of over 7% aligns with several quarterbacks who have experienced success in the league. Those with multiple productive seasons include:
5+ Seasons of NFL Success:
Russell Wilson
Justin Herbert
3-4 Seasons of NFL Success:
Andrew Luck
Carson Wentz
Tua Tagovailoa
Joe Burrow
Andy Dalton
Deshaun Watson
Geno Smith
Baker Mayfield
Kyler Murray
Jimmy Garoppolo
1-2 Seasons of NFL Success:
Robert Griffin III
Mac Jones
Tyrod Taylor
Teddy Bridgewater
Jayden Daniels
CJ Stroud
Trevor Lawrence
Bo Nix
Jalen Hurts
Marcus Mariota
While exceptions exist, the strong correlation between high touchdown rates and successful NFL careers suggests that Dart has the traits necessary to translate his college production to the professional level.
The Problem With Outdated Evaluation Methods
Despite the data supporting his potential, outdated evaluation methods continue to hinder proper quarterback assessments. NFL evaluators still rely on flawed criteria such as:
Bill Parcells’ 2:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, which fails to account for changes in offensive playcalling and passing volume.
Film study that ignores scheme fit, leading to misjudgments of a quarterback’s effectiveness in the right system.
Overemphasis on physical traits without considering processing speed, decision-making, or intangible leadership qualities.
Preconceived narratives, including confirmation bias based on past performance rather than recent trends.
Overreliance on behavioral reports that fail to contextualize a player’s past actions within the realities of modern locker room culture.
Learning From Past Mistakes
The NFL must learn from previous misjudgments. While there have been negative exceptions to the touchdown percentage trend—such as Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Paxton Lynch, Kenny Pickett, Garrett Grayson, and Will Grier—the overall correlation between a strong final-year touchdown percentage and NFL success remains significant. It is worth noting that the late Dwayne Haskins, who tragically passed away after his third NFL season, was a rostered player throughout his short career, making it unfair to include him as a negative exception.
Conclusion: Evaluators Hold the Responsibility
In a league where recent collective bargaining agreements have reduced practice time and where the NCAA and NFL games have evolved, evaluation processes need to evolve as well. If Jaxson Dart does not succeed in the NFL, it will be due to his own performance. However, if he is overlooked in the draft and then thrives elsewhere, it will be a failure of the evaluators who failed to recognize his potential. Given his statistical profile and proven college success, Dart should have been a first-round prospect from the start. The teams that pass on him may regret it in the future.
Note: ChatGPT formulated this article from my notes. I must overcome my writer’s block to formulate articles in proper fashion.